1) LIBYA
» 13.10.2014: The dialogue process in the light of the political and military situation – what is at stake?
The visit of the UN Secretary-General was a notable event. Ban Ki-moon met two delegations of members of parliament who are boycotting the Tobruk sessions; he was accompanied by the deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, who represents those meeting in Tobruk. UN envoy Bernardino León also met a number of boycotting MPs and several leaders of the revolutionaries in the western region. All the meetings focused on dialogue and ways of resolving the crisis, but there was nothing new politically, as each side holds to its position – all the more so since the Ghadames dialogue produced nothing concrete.
The National Salvation Government led by Omar al-Hassi took a number of measures: the release of 60 more prisoners from the city of Misrata, in the presence of the al-Hassi government’s justice minister; the visible return of the security forces (traffic police and police) to the streets of the capital and other areas; a number of ministers taking up their posts at ministry headquarters; and the allocation of the budget to the municipalities for the second quarter of 2014.
With the good steps taken by the al-Hassi government in resolving a number of crises, a degree of satisfaction with this government has been reached in several parts of the country, especially with the adoption of a budget, which matters for the government.
The capital is experiencing general calm and security, with an end to power and water cuts and the fight against organised crime groups led by the Special Deterrence Force. In the east, Benghazi in particular saw a sharp rise in assassinations last week, including the killing of several members of the special forces involved with Haftar in the battles against the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council. According to reports, the Shura Council controls the residential town of Benina and the air base. Fighting is taking place around the airport and the strategic al-Rajma camp, 35 km from the airport, where Haftar’s forces are mainly positioned. The dialogue initiative proposed by the crisis committee during the Eid holiday failed, having been rejected both by Haftar’s forces and by the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council, after one of the revolutionaries’ leaders, Salim Nebous, was killed in clashes with Haftar’s forces over the last two days.
The overall situation: a court ruling expected on 20/10/2014 will open the door to every possibility concerning the legitimacy of the House of Representatives, the February proposals and the integrity of the elections.
Seven appeals have been lodged with the court, four of them concerning the legitimacy of the House of Representatives and the decisions it has taken, and two others concerning, on the one hand, the proposals of the February committee that led to the creation of the House of Representatives and, on the other, the integrity of the elections. The verdict on these appeals is expected on the date mentioned.
In the current situation, some observers believe the dialogue will not succeed, because of the exclusion of the leaders of Fajr Libya in the west and because of the fighting in the east over Haftar’s forces’ last stronghold in Benghazi and its surroundings.
Neighbouring countries: Egypt’s dispatch of a ship full of weapons to the port of Tobruk is a further factor in the failure of the dialogue process; the official Facebook page of the President of the House of Representatives in Tobruk announced the arrival of this arms ship.
The dialogue initiative: the lack of clarity surrounding the Algiers conference, together with contradictory Algerian statements, makes a postponement of the conference possible, and these contradictory statements could work against the success of the dialogue.
In a first statement, the Algerian foreign minister said that “the dialogue will not include agents of the former regime”, while in a later statement he said that “the dialogue will include everyone”.
The pillars and aims of the dialogue are unclear. In any case, everything is subject to the changes that will occur on the battlefronts in the east and west.
Qui veut exploser la solution politique en libye (external website, opens in a new tab) · El Watan
Le maréchal Al-Sissi déclare la guerre aux barbus libyens (external website, opens in a new tab) · Mondafrique · archived copy
2) EGYPT
» 10.10.2014: Egypt’s position on the coalition against ISIS
Although Egypt supports the international coalition against ISIS, it is not taking part in the strikes. Egypt considers its fight against Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis in Sinai, a group that has declared its support for ISIS, to be its priority. According to Bashir Abdel Fattah, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Egypt already plays a role within the alliance along two main lines: first, at the level of intelligence and logistics; second, through its military operations inside the country on two fronts, the Sinai Peninsula in the east and the border with Libya in the west. According to the researcher, Egypt does not confine the fight against ISIS to Syria and Iraq but sees it also on the edges of its own territory, where terrorist organisations previously operating under the banner of al-Qaeda have recently pledged allegiance to al-Baghdadi, the emir of ISIS, which strengthens the organisation’s expansionist ambitions. Moreover, Egypt is said to be reluctant to take part directly in the coalition because it wants the Americans and the coalition countries to include the Muslim Brotherhood in their war on terrorism, arguing that the Brotherhood is no different from other terrorist organisations. Bashir Abdel Fattah, for his part, refuses to equate the Brotherhood with other terrorist organisations, even though some of these are founded on an ideology that grew out of the Brotherhood. He says it would be in Egypt’s interest not to conflate moderate Islam with radical Islam, stressing that it needs moderate Islam as a bulwark against the legal and doctrinal interpretations of jihadist groups that lead to violence.
حياد مصر تجاه الحرب على داعش ما الدوافع (external website, opens in a new tab) · dw.de
3) YEMEN
» 07-09.10.2014: Political deadlock as the security situation deteriorates
On 7 October, the Yemeni president appointed his chief of staff, Ahmed bin Mubarak, as prime minister with the task of forming a new government. The appointment followed the Peace and Partnership Agreement signed on 21 September by the presidency and Yemen’s political forces and parties with the Houthis, after the group seized the capital and most state institutions. Although the formation of a technocratic government within a month was one of the agreement’s main terms, the appointment was immediately rejected by the Houthis and the General People’s Congress. According to some Yemeni political analysts, this rejection is a challenge to the president himself and could lead to renewed violence and complete Houthi control of the capital, deepening the political crisis and raising the risk of a slide into civil war. Indeed, since the rejection, Yemen has seen an escalation of security tensions. On Thursday 9 October, two deadly attacks – one in central Sanaa targeting a Houthi demonstration, the other targeting the army in the south-east of the country – were claimed by Ansar al-Sharia, al-Qaeda’s branch in Yemen. After these events, the Houthis demanded the resignation of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, whom they hold responsible for the deterioration of the security situation.
Yemen le premier ministre conteste rebelles demissionne (external website, opens in a new tab) · France 24
Plusieurs dizaines de morts dans un attentat-suicide à Sanaa (external website, opens in a new tab) · France 24
4) NIGER
» 11.10.2014: Hama Amadou: “It is not flight, but a strategic withdrawal”
Implicated, along with other Nigerien figures, in an international baby-trafficking case, Hama Amadou, Speaker of the National Assembly and bête noire of the regime, has taken refuge in France. He is preparing his defence there and wants the Nigerien authorities to transfer the case to the investigating chamber in Paris.
5) NIGERIA
» 07.10.2014: Nigeria and its neighbours seek a “common strategy” against Boko Haram
Meeting on Tuesday in Niamey, Nigeria and its neighbours are to finalise the creation of a multinational force to counter the threat of the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram.
Defense securite terrorisme boko haram securite le nigeria et ses voisins veulent se doter d… (external website, opens in a new tab) · Jeune Afrique
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