{"id":441,"date":"2014-09-23T12:58:21","date_gmt":"2014-09-23T11:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cpi-geneva.org\/ar\/2014\/09\/23\/weekly-update-16-22092014\/"},"modified":"2023-05-31T00:46:04","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T23:46:04","slug":"weekly-update-16-22092014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cpi-geneva.org\/ar\/weekly-update-16-22092014\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Update 16-22.09.2014"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"images\/joomlart\/article\/f41bf091a4e18f2312495cc0e975d9f7.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<div><strong>16 &#8211; 22 September 2014<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><em>Cordoba Foundation of Geneva<\/em><\/div>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>1) LIBYA<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00bb 16-22.09.2014: UNSMIL&#8217;s Bernardino tries his Luck in Libya<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Lyon Bernardina, UNSMIL&#8217;s Special Representative of the UN to Libya, announced on Sunday that a dialogue would take place on 29 September between the General National Congress in Tripoli and the elected parliament in Tobruk. UNSMIL&#8217;s communique states that the dialogue would take place within the framework of the legitimacy of elected institutions and the Constitutional Declaration. In other words, Bernardino tries to offer a formula that he hopes would be acceptable to both parties to the current stalemate. On one hand, the GNC in Tripoli should recognize the legitimacy of the parliament in Tobruk, while, on the other hand, the latter should submit to the provisions of the Constitutional Declaration that stipulates the procedure for power hand over from the GNC to the elected house of representatives. It is not sure that both parties would answer Bernardino&#8217;s dialogue invitation. On the ground, the Libyan Dawn forces (pro-GNC) managed to tighten their grip on Warshfena (pro-Hafter&#8217;s Libya Dignity), east of Tripoli, following clashes that left around 150 dead in Bir Al Ghanem near Gheriyan. Regionally, Algerian news reports tell of a meeting of the Algerian Security Council in order to review developments in Libya.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/unsmil.unmissions.org\/Default.aspx?tabid=3543&amp;ctl=Details&amp;mid=6187&amp;ItemID=1975301&amp;language=en-US\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http:\/\/unsmil.unmissions.org\/Default.aspx?tabid=3543&amp;ctl=Details&amp;mid=6187&amp;ItemID=1975301&amp;language=en-US<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/elwatan.com\/actualite\/bouteflika-preside-une-reunion-du-haut-conseil-de-securite-22-09-2014-272040_109.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http:\/\/elwatan.com\/actualite\/bouteflika-preside-une-reunion-du-haut-conseil-de-securite-22-09-2014-272040_109.php<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>2) TUNISIA<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>\u00bb <\/strong>16-22.09.2014: Race for Presidential Elections Open<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Now that the deadline for presidency candidacy was over on Monday the race is open among the presidential hopefuls to build coalitions. With Ennahdha not presenting an official candidate, its voting base will inevitably have a say in the outcome of the November presidential elections, especially if a second round takes place, as many observers think. Six heavy-weights are at the starting blocks: Mouncif El Merzouki (CFR), BejiCaidSebsi (NidaTounes), NajibChabi (Republican Party), Hama Hamami (Labour), KamelMourjan (Al Moubadara \u2013Initiative- Party), and MoustaphaNabuli (independent former central bank governor). Among the six candidates, Merzouki is the closest to Ennahdha&#8217;s preference but the latter is in a difficult position as it is believed there is a tacit Algerian veto on Merzouki, given his closeness to Morocco. Ennahdha would most probably then not call officially on its base to vote for Merzouki. No voting instruction would be given although it is believed that Merzouki would gain a sizeable chunk of Ennahdha&#8217;s votes. If November elections go to a second round MoustaphaNabuli has chances to be part of it because he made the tactical decision of standing as an independent, unlike his rival KamelMourjan, Ben Ali&#8217;s minister of foreign affairs before the 2011 revolution. The fact that there are several candidates coming from Ben Ali&#8217;s former Destourian RCD party means that the votes would be shared among them, which would contribute to their rivals. For this reason some observers think that BejiCaidSebssiwill withdrew from the race before election day. In addition to last week&#8217;s polemic about his health condition, key founding members of NidaTounes did not appreciate the way he dealt with the matter by expelling co-founders who disapproved of his candidacy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/nawaat.org\/portail\/2014\/09\/21\/marzouki-vs-nabli-des-presidentielles-a-enjeu-ethique\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http:\/\/nawaat.org\/portail\/2014\/09\/21\/marzouki-vs-nabli-des-presidentielles-a-enjeu-ethique\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>3) EGYPT<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>\u00bb <\/strong>16.09.2014: Retrait du parti al-Watan de la coalition pour le soutien de la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Le 16 septembre, le parti salafiste al-Watan s&#8217;est retir\u00e9 de la coalition de soutien \u00e0 la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9. Il en explique la raison par le besoin d&#8217;un cadre large et g\u00e9n\u00e9ral incluant tout le spectre politique du pays en vue de la construction d&#8217;un r\u00e9gime d\u00e9mocratique sain et des institutions d&#8217;un Etat moderne.<\/p>\n<p>Selon plusieurs observateurs, le retrait du parti al-Watan et, avant lui, celui du parti al-Wasat affaiblira la coalition du soutien \u00e0 la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9, et peut-\u00eatre cela isolera le groupe des Fr\u00e8res. D&#8217;autres observateurs pensent, par contre, que la d\u00e9cision du parti al-Watan d\u00e9montre la volont\u00e9 du parti de se rapprocher du gouvernement en vue des prochaines \u00e9lections parlementaires.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/egyptsource\/top-news-salafi-watan-party-withdraws-from-pro-morsi-alliance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/egyptsource\/top-news-salafi-watan-party-withdraws-from-pro-morsi-alliance<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>4) YEMEN<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>\u00bb <\/strong>20-21.09.2014: Prise de Sanaa par les Houthis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Apr\u00e8s des combats meurtriers entre l&#8217;arm\u00e9e y\u00e9m\u00e9nite et les Houthis, ces derniers se sont empar\u00e9s de la capitale Sanaa ce week-end. Ils ont pris le contr\u00f4le du si\u00e8ge de la t\u00e9l\u00e9vision officielle y\u00e9m\u00e9nite ainsi que celui du gouvernement et l&#8217;\u00e9tat-major de l&#8217;arm\u00e9e y\u00e9m\u00e9nite.<\/p>\n<p>Selon un grand nombre d&#8217;observateurs, Sanaa est ainsi officiellement tomb\u00e9e sous le contr\u00f4le des Houthis et l&#8217;Iran serait la main dirigeante derri\u00e8re ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements, cherchant \u00e0 \u00e9tendre son influence sur toute la r\u00e9gion. Selon le site iranien Kayhan (quotidien de la Garde r\u00e9volutionnaire iranienne), la chute de Sanaa consacre le succ\u00e8s de la r\u00e9volution y\u00e9m\u00e9nite, et d\u00e9sormais T\u00e9h\u00e9ran pourra diriger son regard sur Riyad.<\/p>\n<p>Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l&#8217;Arabie Saoudite et des pays du Golfe s&#8217;\u00e9l\u00e8ve une inqui\u00e9tude quant aux actions des Houthis qui pourraient provoquer une nouvelle balance des forces politiques au Y\u00e9men. Or ils ne prennent pas en compte que la carte politique du Y\u00e9men a d\u00e9j\u00e0 chang\u00e9 et que les Houthis forment d\u00e9sormais un Etat dans l&#8217;Etat.<\/p>\n<p>Le paradoxe est que les Houthis ont gagn\u00e9 en puissance indirectement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l&#8217;Arabie saoudite. En effet, apr\u00e8s que le plan des monarchies du Golfe eut r\u00e9gl\u00e9 la d\u00e9mission de Salah en fin 2011, l&#8217;Arabie Saoudite a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 le soutenir. Salah a ainsi pu prendre sa revanche contre le parti Islah (Fr\u00e8res musulmans) et la tribu al-Ahmar qui ont fortement soutenu les soul\u00e8vements de 2011. Certains observateurs ont constat\u00e9 en effet que Salah et la frange de l&#8217;arm\u00e9e y\u00e9m\u00e9nite qui lui \u00e9tait rest\u00e9e fid\u00e8le ont appuy\u00e9 la r\u00e9volte houthi contre le gouvernement. Or les revendications des Houthis sont historiques, ils r\u00e9clament le pouvoir que le roi zaydite a perdu lors de l&#8217;abolition de l&#8217;imamat en 1962, voire m\u00eame la restauration de cet imamat. A pr\u00e9sent, comme leur homologue libanais, Hizbollah, ils forment un Etat dans l&#8217;Etat. Se revendiquant de descendance hash\u00e9mite et sous l&#8217;influence de l&#8217;Iran, ils forment une menace potentielle pour la maison Saud.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kayhan.ir\/en\/issue\/116\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http:\/\/kayhan.ir\/en\/issue\/116\/1<\/a><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><em>The views and perspectives contained in the Weekly Update are from individual contributors and external sources, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or position of the Cordoba Foundation of Geneva. The links are neither intended as an endorsement of particular publications nor the only source for the updates, but to connect to information in the public domain, for those interested in background or further details.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>16 &#8211; 22 September 2014 Cordoba Foundation of Geneva<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5086,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Update 16-22.09.2014 - Cordoba Peace Institute | \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cpi-geneva.org\/ar\/weekly-update-16-22092014\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weekly Update 16-22.09.2014 - 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